Denmark's EV aspirations – fantasy project or real opportunity?

A seminal moment in Denmark's ambitions to become a trailblazer in the brave new world of EV (electric vehicle) mass transport came over two years ago, in March 2008 to be precise, when Shai Agassi's high profile Renault/Nissan backed Better Place EV scheme announced that Denmark would be its European launch country. A similarly high profile CEO in the shape of ex-Microsoft senior executive and Dane-by-birth Jens Moberg took over the reins of the Danish operation, and there was talk of half a million EVs gliding along Denmark's roads by 2020.

Better Place's announcement had an electrifying effect. In the months that followed, a whole convoy of auto manufacturers from around the world announced plans to move in for a slice of the action in Denmark's pioneering EV market. And with Copenhagen playing host to the massive and much-hyped UN Climate Change Conference COP15 at the end of 2009, Denmark offered the perfect shop window for all these jostling players to showcase their clean green mass-transport solutions in the halogen glare of global publicity.

But it didn't quite turn out like that. COP15 got global media attention sure enough, but with headlines that, as the event drew to a close, tended to contain the words 'flop' and 'fiasco'. And although EV trade promotion events took place and Copenhagen was bedecked for a fortnight with giant placards promoting EVs of every size and shape, one could sense a feeling in the city that the battery of enthusiasm for going electric was going flat.

In hindsight, perhaps expectations of an EV extravaganza were too high, the atmosphere too charged, to withstand the sudden deflating effect of the unexpectedly negative outcome to the political proceedings in the cavernous halls of Bella Center. One may speculate, but there is no doubt that post-COP15, enthusiasm for Denmark's EV aspirations has been more muted, and certainly not helped by Better Place Denmark admitting in late July this year that its original vision of half a million EVs in Denmark by 2020 was unrealistic, and that it had reduced the forecast down to as little as 20,000.

Hot on the heels of that announcement, Morten Messerschmidt MEP of the Danish People's Party delivered the first salvo to signal his party's loss of faith in Denmark's EV aspirations, branding it "a fantasy project" and calling for an immediate suspension of the registration tax exemption for EVs, which the government has recently extended from 2012 to 2015.

That outburst brought forth a swift enough response from the 47-member Danish Electric Vehicle Alliance, which opined that such a move would be "an extraordinarily unwise decision". Given that car registration tax in Denmark is typically 180% of the purchase price, one can understand the Alliance's concern. It is precisely the tax exemption that EVs need to compete on price with petrol/diesel fuelled vehicles and establish a foothold in the auto market. If EVs cost more, Danish consumers simply won't buy them.

But apart from that riposte from the Danish Electric Vehicle Alliance, there has been little else expressed on the side of EV optimism, or for that matter any wider debate conducted in the media concerning the immediate future of EVs in Denmark.

Gloomy stories persist, with financial daily newspaper Børsen carrying an article as recently as 25 August with the headline "Director's exit increases pressure on EV project". The director in question is none other than Better Place Denmark's high profile CEO Jens Moberg, who according to the article is in agreement with Shai Agassi that he (Moberg) is not the right man for the job. Better Place Denmark's communications director is also reported to be leaving to take on fresh challenges at hamburger chain McDonald's.

In the fullness of time, we will all find out whether or not Denmark's EV ambitions are a fantasy project, and whether Better Place was wise to solidify its elaborate infrastructural concept at such an early stage, when zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) development and battery technology improvements are being conducted with such fluidity and pace worldwide.

A propos ZEVs, the 2012 Olympic Games in London will see the unveiling of a London taxi – the familiar black cab – with a difference. It will be a ZEV in the form of a hydrogen fuel cell hybrid. That is to say, it will run on lithium rechargeable batteries that are constantly topped up by electricity from an onboard fuel cell powered by hydrogen (which can be generated from renewable energy sources) fed from a gas cylinder that can be refuelled in a matter of minutes at a hydrogen refuelling station. The vehicle reportedly runs all day on a tankful of hydrogen, and the only exhaust from this black cab will be pure water – the mark of a true ZEV.

The London taxi story is interesting in that its concept, a fuel cell hybrid ZEV that overcomes the two chief acceptance obstacles of pure EVs – range limitation and having to stop and plug it in somewhere to recharge the battery – is exactly the same as a concept car that was unveiled in Denmark one summer day back in 2007. It was called the Hywet. Not the most inspiring of names admittedly, but the car itself was an inspiration to see as it zipped whisper quiet round the car park at its first presentation at Cemtec in the Jutland town of Hobro, with the Danish transport minister at the wheel.

There was technological promise on display that day, but in the three years since, Hywet has not made much in the way of headlines. Perhaps it was not destined for development into a taxi or anything else. But if there is a message in Hywet, it is that Denmark can be a front runner in ZEV transport concepts, which do not necessarily have to be pure EVs.

Denmark's current formulation of its EV ambitions looks set to come under pressure, certainly from political quarters, and that in turn could affect the thinking of the investment community and EV manufacturers, since it is a matter of experience that a climate of political uncertainty tends to dampen investment enthusiasm.

But in the medium or longer term, who knows where the road of Denmark's EV adventure will lead. Denmark has always been a talented and innovative engineering nation, especially where things in the electronic realm are concerned (remember, the first lithium ion battery was made here). And as Denmark showed with the Hywet, it also has the talent to be first on the street with a new idea.

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To learn more about the hydrogen fuel cell London taxi, go to
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10836132